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Post by snowfyre on Sept 13, 2016 3:40:41 GMT
So what does Aemon think? Re the PtwP -- no mystery there. He certainly thinks Dany is the PtwP. He says so outright; he thinks her dragons prove it. And if he thought the PtwP was the same as AAR, then clearly, he would think Dany was AAR. But does he think Dany is AAR? I don't think so. Perhaps more tellingly, Aemon makes certain similar judgements about Stannis - before he ever gets word of Dany's dragons. And on his death bed, he confesses to Sam (1) that he had allowed himself to hope that Stannis might be the PtwP; while at the same time (2) already knowing that Stannis was not AAR (because he knew Mel had glamored the sword). Here's the relevant text:
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Post by min on Sept 13, 2016 7:40:24 GMT
So what does Aemon think? Re the PtwP -- no mystery there. He certainly thinks Dany is the PtwP. He says so outright; he thinks her dragons prove it. And if he thought the PtwP was the same as AAR, then clearly, he would think Dany was AAR. But does he think Dany is AAR? I don't think so. Perhaps more tellingly, Aemon makes certain similar judgements about Stannis - before he ever gets word of Dany's dragons. And on his death bed, he confesses to Sam (1) that he had allowed himself to hope that Stannis might be the PtwP; while at the same time (2) already knowing that Stannis was not AAR (because he knew Mel had glamored the sword). Here's the relevant text: Wow! That's fantastic. Aemon doesn't rule out the Baratheons and he dares to hope. Then he tells Jon to arm himself with knowledge...
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Post by freyfamilyreunion on Sept 13, 2016 15:14:39 GMT
If we are going to argue that Aemon believes TPTWP is a different figure than AA reborn, then don't we have to argue either that 1) the prophecies read that TPTWP will be born or reborn in smoke and salt and Melisandre is wrong when she equates that to Azor Ahai or 2) Aemon mistakes a portion of the Azor Ahai lore to TPTWP? Because otherwise how can we reconcile these two quotes if Aemon believes AA is separate from TPTWP:
From Mel:
From Aemon:
I suppose that there is a third possibility that Aemon believes these are two separate figures both of whom are prophesized to be born or reborn in smoke and salt?
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Post by jnr on Sept 13, 2016 15:30:32 GMT
Is that a still from Pompeii? A movie you will also see mentioned in the thread on this site concerning the all-time worst movies. I suppose that there is a third possibility that Aemon believes these are two separate figures both of whom are prophesized to be born or reborn in smoke and salt? Yep, this has been my guess, and it's not hard to see why it would be the case... This is the time of the Second Long Night. That, really, is the fundamental reason GRRM sets the series when he does (though it's easy for us to forget that from the way he wanders off into the politics for five books). It's literally an epic turning point in the history of Westeros, just as the first Long Night was. Prophecies about this epic point in time are bound to concern more than one major figure. And these signs are so vague they could be interpreted in endless ways, as both fans and GRRM have demonstrated. Rhaegar-as-PtwP for instance (smoke of burning Summerhall, tears of the grieving). The bleeding star is a lot more specific, of course, but we have lots of people emerging in the timeframe of it, too. Rhaegar says Aegon was conceived when the comet was in the sky; Jon would have been conceived less than a year later. Dany's PtwP-ness emerges when the comet is in the sky as her dragons hatch (where we also find smoke, for sure). We also know from her POV chapter that Mel is fond of making clear, confident statements when she ain't nearly so clear or confident. Aemon, I think, is far more honest, but also obviously wrong sometimes given the way he changed his mind on Rhaegar being the PtwP. Then we have the infamous video in which GRRM appears to say that the PtwP and AAR are the same... but then when you watch it, you find he very carefully only states that Melisandre says that. (Quite the stickler for these things, I find.) So for me this whole area is a kind of theoretical jumpball. It could turn out that AAR/PtwP are the same, or maybe not. It's not something blatant and indisputable like, oh, whether RLJ Lyanna would have known RLJ Rhaegar was not keeping to one bed (as she certainly would have).
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Post by Ser Duncan on Sept 13, 2016 16:04:41 GMT
A movie you will also see mentioned in the thread on this site concerning the all-time worst movies. Unfortunately the recommendation to not bother came a bit too late for me. I will second the recommendation though. It's literally an epic turning point in the history of Westeros, just as the first Long Night was. Prophecies about this epic point in time are bound to concern more than one major figure. And these signs are so vague they could be interpreted in endless ways, as both fans and GRRM have demonstrated. You think there is more than one saviour/hero that will emerge to fight for the dawn, and they are all foretold by the same signs? I'll say that wasn't a possibility I'd considered before. If the signs and portents signify a time, rather then a specific formula by which a certain person can be recognised, then yes I think I can see that. But some are so specific, like the waking dragons from stone bit, it's hard not to see that as belonging to only one person. I mean how many people are going to wake dragons in these books? For 150 yrs the Targs have been trying and failing, only to have more than one bring dragons into the world? Or am I taking the 'wake dragons from stone' too narrowly?
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Post by Ser Duncan on Sept 13, 2016 16:29:29 GMT
If we are going to argue that Aemon believes TPTWP is a different figure than AA reborn, then don't we have to argue either that 1) the prophecies read that TPTWP will be born or reborn in smoke and salt and Melisandre is wrong when she equates that to Azor Ahai or 2) Aemon mistakes a portion of the Azor Ahai lore to TPTWP? Because otherwise how can we reconcile these two quotes if Aemon believes AA is separate from TPTWP: I think it's more than just that part of the prophecy. Every part of the prophecy seems to be backed up by what Aemon tells us in his last days. The only thing that is not clear is if the PtwP will carry the true Lightbringer. Aemon states the sword is wrong, but he's referring back to the original Azor Ahai's sword, and stating that Stannis' sword is glamoured. It is not clear if he's saying the PtwP will not carry the right sword, or if he's saying that AAR needs to have the right sword to qualify. I made a chart to look at the elements in each prophecy. TPtwP according to Aemon/Rahegar
| AAR according to Melisandre
| born of smoke and salt
| born of smoke and salt
| bleeding star/comet
| bleeding star/comet
| will have/is a dragon
| will wake dragons from stone
| no sword mentioned
| will carry Lightbringer
| will be a Targ
| has Targ blood
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Post by freyfamilyreunion on Sept 13, 2016 16:30:44 GMT
I think my take is that these are separate prophecies from separate cultures that both relate to a coming Long Night, or major battle vs evil. Perhaps many of the signs are the same in both of these prophecies. Or perhaps Aemon is assuming that both prophecies refer to the same person and he is intentionally conflating them.
The Targaryens do seem very invested in TPTWP but I don't necessarily think that it's a Valyrian prophecy. That's why I am leaning on it being a Rhoynish one since House Targaryen was so heavily influenced by Dornish culture at the time of Aemon and Aegon's birth.
Aemon tells Sam that he now thinks the prophecy concerns Dany. But I liked what Ser Duncan said, she is the only family that he believes he has left except for Stannis. Robert is dead, Renly is dead, he probably isn't aware of the identity of Robert's bastards, and of course Dany has the magical last name of Targaryen. I also think that he probably deep down believes he has let his family down, and is experience tremendous regret that he isn't with Dany.
Now despite the fact that Aemon gives the book to Jon, and earmarks the Lightbringer passage, he never mentions to Sam that he believes Jon is AA or TPTWP, which seems a strange omission if that is what he truly believed, specifically since he tells Sam to tell the Citadel that Dany is the promised child. Perhaps he left that passage to Jon to get him to realize that he has to recruit AA reborn/TPTWP to his cause at the Wall to turn back the white walkers.
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Post by snowfyre on Sept 13, 2016 16:49:30 GMT
"It is written in prophecy as well. When the red star bleeds and the darkness gathers, Azor Ahai shall be born again amidst smoke and salt to wake dragons out of stone." This is one of those Mel-specific lines that I finally, after a good bit of work analyzing and trying to make it fit... well, I finally just threw it out. And here's one of the things I think happened with Mel. Basically... Mel herself is almost entirely AAR-focused. Until - Stannis loses at the Blackwater. Okay, so how does she explain that epic loss and disappointment? Well, she tells Davos that it would have turned out differently if she'd been there herself. But Stannis left her behind, choosing to listen to his bannermen rather than his red woman. Here's the exchange between Davos and Mel: Okay, so Mel plays up the "lack of faith" angle. But we know (from reading her later POV in ADWD) that she's not averse to manipulating folks into being more "faithful" when necessary, right? Right. How does Stannis himself respond to the defeat at the Blackwater? Here's what we hear from Stannis: And here's what Davos hears from Alester Florent, former Hand: And here's the conversation Stannis is having with his zealous wife Selyse: And here's Mel's own latest exhortation to Stannis, incorporating the PtwP: Anyway. Putting all this together... what do we see here? We see that: - Melisandre introduces an entirely new element to her prophetic mantras, and her most zealous devotees have quickly picked up the refrain: "Dragons!"
- Mel also suddenly identifies Stannis as "the prince that was promised" - a phrase readers have only encountered once before, in Dany's HotU vision of Rhaegar
- Waking (or becoming) dragons is clearly something of a family tradition amongst Targs - we suddenly get a litany of bizarre behaviors straight out of Tarm family history (and we might well recall the phrase "waking the dragon" from Dany's own storyline, way back in AGOT)
- Notably, as Selyse so helpfully points out, House Targ has bothered much with R'hllor or Lightbringers, in their dragon-waking rituals. (Selyse theorizes that this is why they've failed all along.)
So, where am I going with all this? I have no idea. I just lost my train of thought, and have to step away from the keyboard. So I'll have to circle back, unless you can fill in the gaps for me while I'm gone.
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Post by Ser Duncan on Sept 13, 2016 17:30:37 GMT
Now despite the fact that Aemon gives the book to Jon, and earmarks the Lightbringer passage, he never mentions to Sam that he believes Jon is AA or TPTWP, which seems a strange omission if that is what he truly believed, specifically since he tells Sam to tell the Citadel that Dany is the promised child. Perhaps he left that passage to Jon to get him to realize that he has to recruit AA reborn/TPTWP to his cause at the Wall to turn back the white walkers. The way I see this is Aemon is warning Jon not to put his faith in Stannis. He's quietly letting him know that if the sword is wrong, then its wielder is the wrong person as well. Stannis and his army could do a great deal of good for the NW and its true fight, but he mustn't rely on Lightbringer being the sword that will vanquish the Others. Maybe Aemon does mean, Keep looking, but as we see Jon doesn't seem to get it.
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Post by snowfyre on Sept 13, 2016 17:45:47 GMT
lost my train of thought, and have to step away from the keyboard. So I'll have to circle back Actually... I have a good bit of stuff that I've assembled on this topic, notes and whatnot. So I may try to get them organized and see what I can make of it. But the long and the short of it is that I believe, starting in ASOS, we can begin putting together portions of the PtwP prophecy - using Mel's mistaken interpretations, and Dany's own storyline. In my opinion, the tale of the PtwP - or, as I've come to think of this figure: the DtwP - is Dany's own storyline. That seems clear to me, in hindsight... though whether all the pieces fit nicely and neatly together is an open question. (I still have gaps and questions.) Regardless, there are enough clues and leads to conclude that the PtwP prophecy itself has already been fulfilled. That said... I am persistently bugged by the suspicion that these semi-separate prophecies contain many of the same elements. As if Martin wrote himself a little limerick, and then just riffed on it with different storylines. To illustrate, it strikes me as remarkable that in both Dany's (DtwP) story, and in Jon's (AAR) story - the arrival/transformation of the prophesied figure appears to require that somebody " kill the boy." Am I jumping to conclusions, there? Possibly. But Melisandre's interest in Edric Storm is notable and peculiar - and her determination to use the boy as blood sacrifice coincides with her pleas to Stannis that he let her " wake the stone dragon." Meanwhile... just before leaving Jon the Jade Compendium, and bookmarking the AA story, Maester Aemon gives his final advice to the young Lord Commander. He says: " Kill the boy, Jon Snow. Winter is almost upon us. Kill the boy and let the man be born." And of course, in Dany's storyline, the final quickening of her dragon eggs happens immediately after the death of her newborn boy Rhaego. So there are... convergences, I suppose. And of course, there are other things that point to Dany's narrative as the fulfillment of the DtwP prophecy. But one of my underlying assumptions is that - beginning with ASOS - Melisandre and her followers redirect their focus to a different prophetic text. They are no longer exclusively looking for AAR... and newly identified portions of ancient text or prophecy (not previously referenced in descriptions of AAR) likely refer, specifically, to the DtwP.
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Post by freyfamilyreunion on Sept 13, 2016 18:14:00 GMT
Now despite the fact that Aemon gives the book to Jon, and earmarks the Lightbringer passage, he never mentions to Sam that he believes Jon is AA or TPTWP, which seems a strange omission if that is what he truly believed, specifically since he tells Sam to tell the Citadel that Dany is the promised child. Perhaps he left that passage to Jon to get him to realize that he has to recruit AA reborn/TPTWP to his cause at the Wall to turn back the white walkers. The way I see this is Aemon is warning Jon not to put his faith in Stannis. He's quietly letting him know that if the sword is wrong, then its wielder is the wrong person as well. Stannis and his army could do a great deal of good for the NW and its true fight, but he mustn't rely on Lightbringer being the sword that will vanquish the Others. Maybe Aemon does mean, Keep looking, but as we see Jon doesn't seem to get it. Yea, the timing of that makes sense, if I'm not mistaken it occurs shortly after Aemon asks Sam if he felt any heat from the sword, of if the scabbard was burned. So Aemon leaves Jon the passage to let Jon know that AA had a fiery hot sword, not a pretty sword of light.
Of course that means that Aemon is assuming that AA reborn will have an actual fiery sword as opposed to a metaphoric sword. And one could make a pretty good argument that Stannis does have a "sword" of sorts that does give off a good bit of heat in Melisandre.
Which has been my thought all along, and why I can't get very into the whole Ice/Dawn debate, I don't think Martin is going to use an actual sword as Lightbringer, I think his Lightbringer is going to be symbolized by one or more characters.
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Post by min on Sept 13, 2016 18:37:41 GMT
Which has been my thought all along, and why I can't get very into the whole Ice/Dawn debate, I don't think Martin is going to use an actual sword as Lightbringer, I think his Lightbringer is going to be symbolized by one or more characters. I agree. The sword is wrong. Dany is already shaping up to be the Lightbringer personnae as the crone who carries the lantern. I expect the dawn sword to end up in Brienne's hands at some point, as a knight who has demonstrated worthiness... the 'evenstar'. AAR could end up being that hellish bad guy - Euron, born of salt and smoke and Melisandre that tall shadow with pale hands of fire. That descriptor comes up so many times. Melisandre as salt wife to Cersei's rock wife.
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Post by Melifeather on Sept 13, 2016 19:31:30 GMT
[tr][td style="padding:3px;"] TPtwP according to Aemon/Rahegar The Prince that Was Promised and Azor Ahai are based on one magic ritual = the third "sword" forged by the Children to defeat the "Others". The end result of the forging was the birth of dragons, so I would put it in this order: 1) blood sacrifice 2) the sacrifice brings the red comet, which in turn heralds 3) a volcanic eruption "smoke and salt" 4) resulting in fire and blood which is symbolized as the birth of dragon(s) All 4 elements above are the third "sword" that slayed human life, and the resulting fire and blood is symbolically represented as a dragon. Over time it became a literal dragon. For the dragon-obsessed Targaryen's trying to replicate the birth of dragons it became a "promised dragon" or "prince". They viewed the process like a recipe that they kept trying to replicate or get right, and their history is replete with repeated and failed attempts.
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Post by Ser Duncan on Sept 13, 2016 19:51:07 GMT
That said... I am persistently bugged by the suspicion that these semi-separate prophecies contain many of the same elements. As if Martin wrote himself a little limerick, and then just riffed on it with different storylines. To illustrate, it strikes me as remarkable that in both Dany's (DtwP) story, and in Jon's (AAR) story - the arrival/transformation of the prophesied figure appears to require that somebody " kill the boy." Am I jumping to conclusions, there? Possibly. But Melisandre's interest in Edric Storm is notable and peculiar - and her determination to use the boy as blood sacrifice coincides with her pleas to Stannis that he let her " wake the stone dragon." Meanwhile... just before leaving Jon the Jade Compendium, and bookmarking the AA story, Maester Aemon gives his final advice to the young Lord Commander. He says: " Kill the boy, Jon Snow. Winter is almost upon us. Kill the boy and let the man be born." And of course, in Dany's storyline, the final quickening of her dragon eggs happens immediately after the death of her newborn boy Rhaego. This is brilliant. I hadn't see that connection until I read this. There is a motif going on here, but I'm wondering if it is not all pointing to Jon's rebirth. Edric Storm gets away; Rhaego was never born, but his spirit may have gone into one or all of the dragons. Since these boys were never killed, they could not let the man be born. But Jon is killed. So his resurrection would be the fulfilment of the man being born to be someone referred to in the prophecies. However, if Jon is the PtwP or the DtwP, would that mean he has Targ blood in him? Or is the Targ blood not necessary?
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Post by min on Sept 13, 2016 20:01:27 GMT
However, if Jon is the PtwP or the DtwP, would that mean he has Targ blood in him? Or is the Targ blood not necessary? I don't think the targ blood is necessary; just the Stark blood and possibly the Baratheon bloodline since Storm's End also has an association with the Cotf and the Durrandon's and further back to the Gardener's. The Gardener's claim to have founded most of the great houses IIC. The point being that these three represent ancient bloodlines going back to the dawn age are associated in some way with the CotF.
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