Post by Some Pig No Doubt on Sept 5, 2016 17:32:00 GMT
This is a "process of logical deduction and elimination" thread to work through the known facts of the Rebellion and tie those facts into babies of import. By following the bread crumbs, we can possibly get closer to who begat whom.
I will start with Aegon, son of Rhaegar and Elia.
Known facts:
- Rhaegar and Elia marry in early 280, daughter Rhaenys is born in latter 280.
- Elia was on bedrest after birth for approximately half a year.
- She would have recovered by late Q1/early Q2 281.
- Elia's caravan was attacked by the Kingswood Brotherhood. Due to injury to Gerold Hightower that kept him from participating in Tourney of HH and the timing of Jaime's knighthood/KG initiation, this had to be sometime in 281 prior to ToHH.
- This also indicates that Elia was traveling post-recovery, so most likely Q2 281, possibly late Q1.
- Tourney of Harrenhal held during false spring of 281.
- Given that false spring lasted two turns and winter had returned by end of year, this places tourney approximately late Q3/early Q4 281.
- At start of 282, Rhaegar has gone on walkabout. Elia and newborn son Aegon are on Dragonstone.
- This indicates that Aegon was born sometime in late 281.
- A birth in late 281 means a conception in very late Q4 280 at earliest/Q1 281 at latest.
- Elia would have been on bedrest at this time.
- This conception could also coincide with the time Elia was traveling through the Kingswood.
- A birth in late 281 would mean late term pregnancy at ToHH - no indication that Elia was with child.
- Aegon's birth nearly killed her, per JonCon. 'The maesters said' she would have no more children.
- The maester of Dragonstone at the time is unnamed and whereabouts are unknown. Stannis brought Cressen with him to Dragonstone from Storm's End, meaning the maester that tended the Targaryens went AWOL during the Rebellion.
- A comet was seen over King's Landing the night Aegon was conceived.
- in late 280/early 281, Elia was recovering at Dragonstone and nowhere near King's Landing. Who saw the comet?
- SSM states that Aegon was "a babe at the breast, a year old give or take a moon's turn or two" at the time of the Sack of KL.
- Aegon, born in late 281, would have been almost 2yo at the time of the Sack...6 months to a full year older than the child killed by Twyin's men.
- To be 1yo +/- a month at Sack in Q3 283, this child would have been conceived in Q4 281.
- A child conceived in Q4 281 would coincide with the ToHH.
- Pisswater Prince: "His mother died birthing him and his father sold him to Lord Varys for a jug of Arbor gold - his father had other sons but had never tasted Arbor gold. Varys gave the pisswater prince to Princess Elia Martell and carried Aegon away for his own safety."
- Both Varys and (f)Aegon tell this tale, but it is not specified exactly when this swap happened? [need to verify this in ADWD text]
- Implies that Elia was in on the plan.
- Seems too convenient that Varys would just happen to have a peasant child with Targ features at the ready to swap prior to the Sack. Also, at near 2yo, the real Aegon would now have a distinct look, so the features of the decoy would have to be quite similar...perhaps even a family resemblance.
- This swap, if it happened, may have taken place long before the end of the war.
Thoughts/conclusions:
1) If Elia did indeed give birth to a child, the child wasn't Rhaegar's.
2) It doesn't sound like Elia actually had a second child. If someone had a child in late 281 that passed for Aegon, it wasn't her.
3) The child that died at the Sack was the Harrenhal baby.
Questions:
1) Is there any truth to the PwP story at all? Varys doesn't lie, per se...all of his tales have truth at the root, it's just a matter of interpretation.
2) If there was a Real Aegon born in late 281, where is he? [look for SSM where George says "The child in the vision is dead."]
3) What was the chest of gold dragons for in her Kingswood caravan? If shadow funding for the tourney, why was it with Elia? Was this payment for something else...like a child?
Note: Precedent in Targaryen ancestry - "In 122 AC, Prince Aegon married his sister, Princess Helaena Targaryen, in King's Landing. Their first children, the twins Jaehaerys and Jaehaera, were born a year later, as were Aegon's first two bastards, one boy he had fathered on a girl on the Street of Silk, and one girl he had fathered on one of his mother's servants." And of course Aegon the Unworthy and his numerous bastards born during his marriage. Were there little Rhaegars around somewhere that could be taken from their mothers?
Contradictions:
1) HotU vision. GRRM did confirm that the woman nursing the newborn babe in the great wooden bed was Elia with Aegon - meaning, Elia had a baby despite all evidence to contrary. VisionElia also looks hale and hearty rather than weak from a difficult birth.
Possible resolution:
If Rhaenys was born in late 280, it is very possible that Elia was still nursing her in late 281 - GRRM has established in several places that infants were nursed by their mother or a wetnurse until over a year of age. If Aegon were brought in from outside in late 281, Elia could technically still be able to nurse him herself. This could explain the nursing infant, Elia's health in the vision, and lack of pregnancy confirmation. Also the weird throwaway line in the convo between Tyrion and Oberyn - upon seeing baby Tyrion for the first time, Elia was very taken and Oberyn thought she would have nursed him herself. ASOS 38 - "Elia even made the noise that young girls make at the sight of infants, I'm sure you've heard it. The same noise they make over cute kittens and playful puppies. I believe she wanted to nurse you herself, ugly as you were." Perhaps she loved babies so much she was willing to take someone else's as her own?
2) Rhaegar/Elia's known personalities.
Will have to come back to this, my kids are running around and I can't even finish a thought, much less this post.
I will start with Aegon, son of Rhaegar and Elia.
Known facts:
- Rhaegar and Elia marry in early 280, daughter Rhaenys is born in latter 280.
- Elia was on bedrest after birth for approximately half a year.
- She would have recovered by late Q1/early Q2 281.
- Elia's caravan was attacked by the Kingswood Brotherhood. Due to injury to Gerold Hightower that kept him from participating in Tourney of HH and the timing of Jaime's knighthood/KG initiation, this had to be sometime in 281 prior to ToHH.
- This also indicates that Elia was traveling post-recovery, so most likely Q2 281, possibly late Q1.
- Tourney of Harrenhal held during false spring of 281.
- Given that false spring lasted two turns and winter had returned by end of year, this places tourney approximately late Q3/early Q4 281.
- At start of 282, Rhaegar has gone on walkabout. Elia and newborn son Aegon are on Dragonstone.
- This indicates that Aegon was born sometime in late 281.
- A birth in late 281 means a conception in very late Q4 280 at earliest/Q1 281 at latest.
- Elia would have been on bedrest at this time.
- This conception could also coincide with the time Elia was traveling through the Kingswood.
- A birth in late 281 would mean late term pregnancy at ToHH - no indication that Elia was with child.
- Aegon's birth nearly killed her, per JonCon. 'The maesters said' she would have no more children.
- The maester of Dragonstone at the time is unnamed and whereabouts are unknown. Stannis brought Cressen with him to Dragonstone from Storm's End, meaning the maester that tended the Targaryens went AWOL during the Rebellion.
- A comet was seen over King's Landing the night Aegon was conceived.
- in late 280/early 281, Elia was recovering at Dragonstone and nowhere near King's Landing. Who saw the comet?
- SSM states that Aegon was "a babe at the breast, a year old give or take a moon's turn or two" at the time of the Sack of KL.
- Aegon, born in late 281, would have been almost 2yo at the time of the Sack...6 months to a full year older than the child killed by Twyin's men.
- To be 1yo +/- a month at Sack in Q3 283, this child would have been conceived in Q4 281.
- A child conceived in Q4 281 would coincide with the ToHH.
- Pisswater Prince: "His mother died birthing him and his father sold him to Lord Varys for a jug of Arbor gold - his father had other sons but had never tasted Arbor gold. Varys gave the pisswater prince to Princess Elia Martell and carried Aegon away for his own safety."
- Both Varys and (f)Aegon tell this tale, but it is not specified exactly when this swap happened? [need to verify this in ADWD text]
- Implies that Elia was in on the plan.
- Seems too convenient that Varys would just happen to have a peasant child with Targ features at the ready to swap prior to the Sack. Also, at near 2yo, the real Aegon would now have a distinct look, so the features of the decoy would have to be quite similar...perhaps even a family resemblance.
- This swap, if it happened, may have taken place long before the end of the war.
Thoughts/conclusions:
1) If Elia did indeed give birth to a child, the child wasn't Rhaegar's.
2) It doesn't sound like Elia actually had a second child. If someone had a child in late 281 that passed for Aegon, it wasn't her.
3) The child that died at the Sack was the Harrenhal baby.
Questions:
1) Is there any truth to the PwP story at all? Varys doesn't lie, per se...all of his tales have truth at the root, it's just a matter of interpretation.
2) If there was a Real Aegon born in late 281, where is he? [look for SSM where George says "The child in the vision is dead."]
3) What was the chest of gold dragons for in her Kingswood caravan? If shadow funding for the tourney, why was it with Elia? Was this payment for something else...like a child?
Note: Precedent in Targaryen ancestry - "In 122 AC, Prince Aegon married his sister, Princess Helaena Targaryen, in King's Landing. Their first children, the twins Jaehaerys and Jaehaera, were born a year later, as were Aegon's first two bastards, one boy he had fathered on a girl on the Street of Silk, and one girl he had fathered on one of his mother's servants." And of course Aegon the Unworthy and his numerous bastards born during his marriage. Were there little Rhaegars around somewhere that could be taken from their mothers?
Contradictions:
1) HotU vision. GRRM did confirm that the woman nursing the newborn babe in the great wooden bed was Elia with Aegon - meaning, Elia had a baby despite all evidence to contrary. VisionElia also looks hale and hearty rather than weak from a difficult birth.
Possible resolution:
If Rhaenys was born in late 280, it is very possible that Elia was still nursing her in late 281 - GRRM has established in several places that infants were nursed by their mother or a wetnurse until over a year of age. If Aegon were brought in from outside in late 281, Elia could technically still be able to nurse him herself. This could explain the nursing infant, Elia's health in the vision, and lack of pregnancy confirmation. Also the weird throwaway line in the convo between Tyrion and Oberyn - upon seeing baby Tyrion for the first time, Elia was very taken and Oberyn thought she would have nursed him herself. ASOS 38 - "Elia even made the noise that young girls make at the sight of infants, I'm sure you've heard it. The same noise they make over cute kittens and playful puppies. I believe she wanted to nurse you herself, ugly as you were." Perhaps she loved babies so much she was willing to take someone else's as her own?
2) Rhaegar/Elia's known personalities.
Will have to come back to this, my kids are running around and I can't even finish a thought, much less this post.